![]() However, most of the teams with the room to pay him above the midlevel exception are also rebuilding and don’t really have use for Clarkson. What is the market for a 31-year-old shoot-first combo guard? Clarkson can fill it up and is clearly a valuable sixth man - BORD$ has a $20.1 million price tag on him for 2023-24. Jordan Clarkson, SG, Utah ($14,260,000): Here’s an interesting case. VanVleet is worth far more than this amount, and even if he wants to stay in Toronto, he would be nuts to invoke his option rather than getting a free-agency bag likely to pay him well into nine figures. Prediction: Opt out and extendįred VanVleet, PG, Toronto ($22,824,074): Here’s an easy one. Is there more money than that out there for him in the open market? I’m skeptical, but it only takes one. Given the Warriors’ horrific luxury-tax situation for 2023-24, one wonders if their best strategy would be for Green to opt out but re-sign for three years (matching his contract length to Steph Curry’s) at a lower annual number - say, three years for $75 million. On the other hand, it’s probably his last chance to get multiple years, and that could prove quite valuable to him even if the annual salary doesn’t change much. Which big-time NBA free agent will sign for the most guaranteed money?ĭraymond Green, PF, Golden State ($27,586,225): Green has one of the more interesting offseason decisions he’s 33 and my in-the-works BORD$ projections have him at a $23.8 million valuation for next season, so it’s questionable whether his free-agent market could pay better than this. ![]() Remember, Harden opted out of $47.4 million last offseason, taking a $14 million pay cut to allows the Sixers to make other moves. James Harden, SG, Philadelphia ($35,640,000): Harden’s impending free agency has been a very popular topic regardless of whether he chooses to stay in Philadelphia or seek greener pastures, there seems little chance that he would opt in for $35.6 million when more money and years likely await this summer. The final consideration, however, is that a rebuilding Wizards team would likely trade him anyway even if he opted in knowing that, one presumes Porziņģis would rather control his destination via free agency. However, if Washington is pivoting to a rebuild, Porziņģis needs to find another party willing to pay him in this price range his injury history could make that a tricky proposition. Coming off a healthy season in which he played at a near-All-Star level, it would have been a no-brainer for him to opt out and force the Wizards to fork out for a lavish multiyear deal to sustain their annual chase for Play-In glory. Kristaps Porziņģis, C, Washington ($36,016,200): Washington’s recent management transition likely complicates what would have been an easy decision for Porziņģis, because he may have lost some leverage. However, Middleton opting out is quite important to the Bucks getting his $40 million to a lower number is one of the key ways for them to skirt the Draconian restrictions the Bucks would face from exceeding the second luxury-tax apron in the incoming CBA.īecause of that factor, an amateur game theorist would surmise that the Bucks and Middleton reach some kind of accommodation that allows him to opt out and re-up for a lower annual salary and a longer term. ![]() His metrics from last season suggest he’s not worth anywhere near $40 million a year, and no reasonable person would start his next contract in that range. Khris Middleton, SF, Milwaukee ($40,396,552): Based on pure metrics, Middleton should opt in. Here are the relevant option years for this June in declining order dollar amounts are in parentheses. Here are the players with team options, player options and partial or non-guarantees for more than the minimum with trigger dates: Group 1: player options (22)Ī so-called “player option” gives a player the power to decline the final year of his deal and instead become a free agent. So, first things first: Let’s figure out and predict which players will play out their option years or extend their deals before the buzzer, and which ones will see their contracts terminated and become free agents. That last category, I will note, does not include the myriad fungible swarms on non-guaranteed minimum deals. Those consist of three categories: player options, team options and non-guaranteed, non-minimum deals with a trigger date in June or July. It’s not really useful to speculate about what might happen during the July 1 ( *winks*) signing frenzy until we know who will be on the market.Īs it turns out, roughly one-seventh of the league - 60 players! - still have some kind of decision left before we know for sure whether they’re free agents. Do you know what other thing you need before you can have free agency? Actual free agents.
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